Overview

• Retail sales in January 2025 increased by 0.2% compared to December 2024, adjusted for price changes and seasonal factors, according to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office.
• Compared to January 2024, sales rose by 2.9% in real terms and 3.8% in nominal terms, reflecting a year-over-year improvement.
• The Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE) forecasts a nominal retail sales increase of 2% for 2025, amounting to an estimated €677 billion in total revenue.
• Economists note that the January growth was weaker than expected, citing concerns about job security as a potential drag on consumer spending throughout the year.
• While retail sales showed slight improvement, the growth may not signal a strong recovery in private consumption for 2025, as analysts remain cautious about broader economic trends.