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German Retail Faces Challenging 2025 Despite Modest Growth in 2024

Retailers report stagnant sales expectations as consumer uncertainty persists, while online shopping continues to grow with new demographics.

Overview

  • The Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE) predicts a real retail sales growth of just 0.5% for 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges.
  • A recent survey revealed that nearly half of German retailers expect declining sales this year, citing consumer uncertainty and high energy costs.
  • Despite a lackluster outlook, the 2024 holiday season exceeded expectations, with sales rising 1.5% year-over-year to €123.5 billion.
  • Online retail saw a 5% real growth in 2024, driven by increased spending from younger consumers and new engagement from older demographics.
  • Approximately 5,000 brick-and-mortar stores close annually, yet employment in the retail sector has slightly increased to 3.1 million workers.