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German Manufacturing Order Backlog Hits Record High

The surge is driven by large long‑lead orders in aircraft, ships, trains and defence work, but its impact on output depends on firms’ ability to scale production.

Overview

  • Destatis reported that the real value of manufacturing orders rose 1.5% from the prior month and 10.9% from a year earlier, taking the backlog to a new peak.
  • The backlog’s Reichweite, a measure of how many months firms could work through existing orders at current output, has climbed to nine months, the highest since the series began.
  • The gain is concentrated in the 'other vehicle construction' segment, meaning aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles supplied most of the new long‑lead orders.
  • Machinery orders showed a small pick‑up while the automotive sector’s order stock fell, and without the 'other vehicle construction' segment the overall backlog would sit well below its record.
  • Leading institutes have raised 2026 growth forecasts on the orders and state investment, but analysts warn the boost will only lift production and jobs if firms can resolve capacity, labour and supply‑chain constraints.