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German Intelligence Warns Russia May Enter Direct Conflict With NATO Before 2029

The warning came in Bundestag testimony citing recent airspace breaches alongside hybrid attacks.

Overview

  • BND chief Martin Jäger told a parliamentary oversight panel that Moscow seeks to expand its influence westward and would use military force if needed.
  • He cautioned against assuming a long lead time for any attack, describing Europe as a fragile “frozen peace” that could tip into violence.
  • BfV head Sinan Selen reported sustained espionage, disinformation, interference, sabotage, and cyber operations targeting Germany and Western allies.
  • Officials identified Germany as Russia’s primary target in Europe, pointing to attempts to shape domestic decisions and to leverage migration flows for destabilization.
  • Lawmakers signaled support for strengthening intelligence authorities after drone incursions in Poland, an Estonian airspace breach, and suspected sabotage and influence campaigns in Germany.