Overview

• Growth is projected to pick up to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, pointing to only a modest recovery.
• The economists warn the upswing will be short-lived given high energy and unit‑labour costs, weak foreign demand and persistent skills shortages.
• The institutes criticize the use of a large special fund and loosened debt rules, cautioning that slow planning and procurement delay spending and postpone needed consolidation.
• The report outlines a 12‑point reform compass, including swift Mercosur ratification, reintroducing the pension sustainability factor and cutting bureaucracy.
• The researchers oppose energy subsidies such as an industrial electricity price and call for market‑based price signals and emissions trading.