Overview

• Ifo, IfW and RWI trimmed their autumn forecasts to roughly zero growth in 2025, with projections clustered at 0.1%–0.2% and 2026 eased to 1.1%–1.3%.
• Ifo expects unemployment to rise by about 155,000 this year, lifting the rate to 6.3%, before a gradual improvement from 2026.
• The institutes say private investment remains weak and warn that public spending alone cannot deliver a self-sustaining upswing without structural reforms.
• US tariffs continue to burden German exports, and analysts see no immediate relief from the EU–US deal because effective tariff rates are largely unchanged.
• Fiscal support is assessed as modest in 2025 (about €9 billion) and stronger in 2026 (around €38 billion), with IfW estimating roughly a 0.6 percentage-point boost to next year’s growth.