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German Hospitality Slumps in H1 as Sector Awaits 2026 VAT Cut

Official figures confirm a deeper first-half slump, with diners visiting less and spending cautiously.

Overview

  • The Statistische Bundesamt reports real gastgewerbe revenue fell 3.7% in H1 2025, with restaurants down 4.1% as nominal sales slipped just 0.1% after price hikes.
  • Momentum weakened into early summer, with June revenues down 5.9% in real terms year on year and dpa/Datev data indicating a further 4.0% decline in July.
  • The federal plan to lower VAT on restaurant meals to 7% from January 2026 remains the sector’s key policy relief, though operators say it will mostly cover higher costs.
  • Dehoga leaders, including Guido Zöllick and Thüringen’s Dirk Ellinger, welcome the tax cut but do not expect broad menu price reductions given rising energy, food and labor expenses.
  • The NGG union warns customers not to expect a “Schnitzel discount,” urges diners to ask where the savings go, and regional reports cite added strains such as COVID aid repayments and high-profile Berlin closures.