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German Hospitality Sector Records Largest Revenue Decline Since 2021

Government’s planned 2026 VAT cut faces criticism from economists projecting a €3 billion annual cost, benefiting predominantly high earners

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Overview

  • May 2025 saw a 2.2 percent nominal and 4.6 percent real month-on-month revenue decline, marking the steepest drop since December 2021.
  • Hotels and other lodging businesses recorded a 7.0 percent real downturn while restaurants and pubs posted a 3.9 percent real decline.
  • A May calendar crowded with public holidays and bridge days suppressed customer traffic and spending.
  • Operators are bracing for minimum wage hikes to €13.90 in 2026 and €14.60 in 2027, further straining already tight margins.
  • Industry hopes for a permanent reduction of VAT on restaurant meals from 19 percent to 7 percent in 2026 face economists’ warnings that the measure will cost about €3 billion annually and primarily benefit higher-income households.