Overview

• The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) assessed with 80-95% probability that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, based on findings from its 2020 operation 'Saaremaa.'
• The German government, citing foreign relations concerns, has withheld these findings and refused to comment on whether key figures like Christian Drosten had access to classified information.
• BND findings include evidence of gain-of-function experiments and safety lapses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, raising further questions about the virus's origins.
• The CIA revised its assessment in early 2025, now considering a lab origin more likely, after being briefed on the BND findings in late 2024.
• Public and scientific scrutiny has intensified, with calls for greater transparency as the German government continues to avoid investigating media leaks of the classified intelligence.