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German Firms Say AI Will Push Down Pay for Less-Experienced Workers

Employers expect experienced degree-holders to capture most productivity gains, signaling a risk of growing wage polarization.

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Les profils réalisant des tâches répétitives et mobilisant peu de compétences numériques sont généralement considérés comme les plus vulnérables à l’automatisation permise par l’IA.
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Overview

  • The Ifo Institute survey of more than 3,000 German firms, published Aug. 12–13, 2026, found roughly half expect lower wages for workers with under five years of experience and 40% expect cuts for those with five or more years.
  • Firms identified workers without university degrees who do repetitive tasks and have low digital skills as the most vulnerable group, with only about 6% of firms saying AI could raise pay for that profile.
  • More than a quarter of surveyed companies expect wage increases for university-educated employees with over five years of experience who can convert AI-driven productivity gains into higher pay.
  • Sector differences matter: a majority of firms in services, commerce and manufacturing expect pay falls for the least-experienced, while construction firms report smaller exposure.
  • Related French reporting shows AI use and training are rising — nearly one in five firms used AI in 2025 and demand for AI training has quintupled since 2023 — but economists stress these are employer expectations and early adoption signals rather than confirmed, economy-wide wage or job outcomes.