Overview
- An Ifo Institute survey of about 3,000 German companies that already use AI, published on Aug. 12, found many firms expect wages to decline over the next five years for certain groups.
- The strongest downturn was forecast for employees with less than five years’ experience: 48.3% of firms expect lower pay for non-degree entrants and 50.8% expect lower pay for degree-holders in that group.
- More experienced degree holders are likelier to see wage gains according to surveyed firms, with 26% predicting rises for workers with more than five years’ experience while 37.5% still expect declines.
- A separate Bitkom poll of 102 tech start-ups showed firms are already changing hiring: 27% avoided new hires in the past year because of AI and 7% cut jobs for that reason, though many start-ups still plan net hires.
- Analysts and the ILO warn the effects are uneven and forward-looking, so policy options such as stronger vocational training, lifelong learning and collective bargaining are urged to protect early-career workers and ease labour‑market entry.