Overview
- On Wednesday, August 26, 2026 the ifo Institute reported its export expectations index rose to +9.6 in August from −2.8 in July, the biggest monthly jump since June 2020 and the highest reading since February 2022.
- The Federal Statistical Office revised second-quarter GDP up to 0.3%, saying the upgrade was mainly driven by stronger exports that have already supported a small upward growth revision.
- Demand within the EU is the main engine of the rebound with EU exports up strongly in the first half of the year while shipments to China fell sharply and China has slipped to a much lower rank as a destination.
- Optimism is concentrated in makers of electrical equipment, data‑processing and electronic and optical goods, and parts of the auto sector as firms benefit from digitalization and high AI investment.
- Analysts caution the upswing is fragile because some gains stem from large public procurement and precautionary pre‑purchases tied to geopolitical risks, while private business investment remains weak.