Overview
- The ZEW expectations index rose by 7.9 points to 34.2 in the August survey fielded Aug. 10–17, a fourth straight monthly gain reported on Tuesday, August 18, 2026.
- ZEW’s measure of the current economic situation improved by 16.5 points to minus 61.1 but stays deeply negative, showing a gap between brighter forecasts and weak present conditions.
- ZEW president Achim Wambach linked the brighter outlook to strong quarterly corporate results and a record high in June exports while warning that the Rhine’s record low water is an acute short‑term risk.
- The Bundesverband der Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.0% from 0.5% and said the Rhine low water is causing supply‑chain disruptions and higher logistics costs expected to pause growth briefly.
- The recovery is conditional: if river levels normalize and exports hold up the economy could regain momentum, but persistent geopolitical risk and climate extremes could slow growth and raise costs for industry and consumers.