Overview
- An IAB analysis, cited across coverage, estimates that capping maximum unemployment‑benefit duration for older claimants at 12 months would cut Bundesagentur für Arbeit spending by at least €2.4 billion a year and could reach more than €4 billion once faster job‑search effects are counted.
- The Bundesagentur für Arbeit warns the unemployment‑insurance fund faces about a €10 billion shortfall for 2026, a financing gap that ministers say makes changes to benefit rules necessary to stabilise contributions.
- Coalition plans include abolishing the penalty‑free early pension after 45 contribution years; Labour Minister Bärbel Bas has promised a legal ‘Vertrauensschutz’ (protection of legitimate expectations) but has not specified which cohorts or how long transition guarantees would last.
- The Health Ministry’s draft would end the €131 monthly Entlastungsbetrag for Pflegegrad 1 from 2027, a move projected to save roughly €400 million that creates a service gap until the proposed Pflegebegleitung counselling starts in January 2028.
- Analysts warn the apparent savings could be offset by higher spending elsewhere: some older people may move onto basic income support (Grundsicherung), pension‑insurance contributions would fall, and details on a proposed €300 energy/tank pauschale — including whether pensioners or Grundsicherung recipients would get it or have it excluded from income calculations — remain undecided.