Overview
- An IW Köln survey finds 36% of firms plan to cut staff in 2026, while only 18% expect to add jobs after sentiment weakened again in late 2025.
- Industry is hit hardest, with 41% of manufacturers planning headcount reductions and about three quarters of all respondents expecting flat or lower output next year.
- Only 23% of companies plan higher investment in 2026 and 33% plan cuts, marking a rare five consecutive half-years of negative investment expectations in the IW series.
- The federal government projects 1.3% GDP growth for 2026, yet the IW sees no clear upswing in business activity on current company expectations.
- Stress in the auto-supplier sector deepens as the VDA reports 61% of midsize suppliers plan job cuts, consulting tallies 41 large insolvencies this year, and major firms such as Webasto and ZF announce substantial reductions.