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Geomagnetic Storm Ends as Scientists Downplay Impact of Oct. 3 Solar Eruption

September’s F10.7 radio flux jumped to 201, prompting scientists to watch for signs of a second cycle peak.

Overview

  • Ground measurements show the weeklong disturbance has subsided, with the planetary Kp index back in the green.
  • The storm was among the longest of Solar Cycle 25, lasting about four days and peaking above G3 on Sept. 30.
  • An M1.5 flare on Oct. 3 from active region 4232 launched a CME now assessed as slow, with arrival expected around Oct. 8 and no geomagnetic effects forecast.
  • Researchers note solar activity has eased for now, though a small chance of isolated strong flares persists over the next two to three days.
  • Scientists highlight a disconnect in indicators: sunspot counts remain near forecasts with no X-class flares in the past three months, even as F10.7 jumped from 156 in August to 201 in September.