Overview
- Half of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy next two years, with only 1% predicting calm and 68% foreseeing a multipolar or fragmented order over the decade.
- The top risk reflects the weaponization of tariffs, sanctions, investment controls and supply restrictions that could disrupt trade and supply chains.
- State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026, while misinformation, disinformation and societal polarization are high on the near-term list.
- Economic risks jump in the two-year outlook, with downturn and inflation each up eight places and asset-bubble fears rising seven.
- Environmental threats slip in short-term rankings yet dominate the 10-year horizon, as anxiety over adverse AI outcomes climbs to fifth long term.