Overview
- Drawing on surveys of more than 1,300 experts, 18% identified geoeconomic confrontation as the most likely trigger of a major crisis in 2026, and 68% expect a multipolar or fragmented global order over the next decade.
- Over the two‑year horizon, recession and inflation each rose eight places in likelihood and the risk of an asset‑price bubble advanced seven spots, underscoring broader economic fragility.
- Adverse impacts from artificial intelligence leapt in the ten‑year outlook from rank 30 to rank 5, alongside near‑term concerns about misinformation and cyber insecurity.
- Environmental threats dominate the long‑term rankings, led by extreme weather, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse over the coming decade.
- Country snapshots highlight divergent priorities: Mexico’s top risk is criminal and illicit economic activity, while Argentina’s business survey now ranks limited state capacity to sustain public services ahead of inflation.