Overview
- In the near‑term ranking, interstate armed conflict placed second and extreme weather third behind geo‑economic confrontation.
- Over a ten‑year horizon, respondents judged climate risks highest, led by extreme weather, then biodiversity loss and critical Earth‑system change.
- The assessment draws on roughly 1,300 experts surveyed in August–September 2025, with 18% naming geo‑economic confrontation as 2026’s likeliest crisis trigger.
- Compared with last year’s report, geo‑economic confrontation jumped from ninth to first, while concerns about recession, inflation, asset bubbles and critical infrastructure also rose.
- The report defines the top risk to include tariffs, sanctions, investment controls, currency measures, state aid and trade restrictions, which coverage notes resemble current U.S. policy.