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Generative AI Model Delphi-2M Forecasts Risk for 1,000+ Diseases Decades Ahead

Researchers report robust validation across UK and Danish datasets, with clinical use contingent on broader trials and governance.

Overview

  • The model was trained on anonymized records from 400,000 UK Biobank participants and evaluated on about 1.9 million patients in Denmark’s national registry.
  • It estimates time-based probabilities for future conditions across 1,258 diseases, performing best for illnesses with consistent progression such as certain cancers, heart attacks and septicemia.
  • Accuracy matched or exceeded many single-disease tools and in some comparisons surpassed biomarker-based algorithms, with shorter-range forecasts proving more reliable than longer-term ones.
  • Its generative design can simulate synthetic future health trajectories for research and planning, though experts warn of data biases and re-identification risks that require secure processing environments.
  • Authors and independent commentators say the system is not ready for clinics and call for diversified validations, explainability studies and randomized trials, with potential deployment estimated in roughly 5–10 years.