Overview
- The Gates Foundation’s Goalkeepers 2025 report, drawing on IHME modeling, forecasts about 4.8 million under‑five deaths next year, roughly 200,000 more than in 2024 and the first increase this century.
- The analysis cites a steep pullback in Western funding, including U.S. moves to restructure USAID and reduced contributions to Gavi, as key drivers of the setback.
- Bill Gates says these policy changes have “without doubt” caused deaths and reports he is speaking with President Trump to try to reverse or lessen the cuts.
- If reductions continue, the foundation projects up to 16 million additional child deaths by 2045, aligning with a Barcelona institute study warning of more than 22 million deaths by 2030 from sustained U.S. and European cutbacks.
- Gates urges protecting primary care and vaccination budgets and backing new tools, estimating millions of lives could be saved by forthcoming RSV and pneumonia vaccines and newer malaria interventions.