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Gates Report Projects First Rise in Child Deaths This Century as Global Health Aid Falls 27%

Gates is lobbying Washington plus European capitals to reverse reductions he says are already costing lives.

Overview

  • Goalkeepers report estimates 4.8 million under‑5 deaths in 2025, roughly 200,000 more than in 2024 and the first annual increase since 2000.
  • Global development assistance for health fell by about 27% this year, with the United States making the deepest cuts after dismantling USAID.
  • Gates blamed DOGE’s abrupt shutdown of USAID grants for “a lot of deaths” and warned the funding shock will take years to repair.
  • U.S. support for Gavi remains paused as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. criticized vaccines at its pledging event, and the proposed 2026 budget would close CDC’s global health division.
  • IHME modeling suggests permanent cuts near 30% could result in roughly 16 million additional child deaths by 2045, threatening progress on vaccines, malaria, HIV and polio.