Overview
- GE Vernova told analysts on July 22 that heavy-duty turbine orders placed now would not be delivered until 2031, a delivery horizon other makers have echoed in recent quarters.
- Manufacturers report very large but differently counted backlogs: GE Vernova shows 116 GW of backlog and reservations (53 GW firm, 63 GW reservation), Siemens Energy reports 69 GW of firm backlog, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reports a 35 GW large-frame backlog.
- Goldman Sachs projects U.S. data-center power demand will jump from about 31 GW in 2025 to roughly 66 GW by 2027, pushing data centers toward roughly 8.5% of U.S. peak summer demand and sharply increasing short-term equipment needs.
- Lead times now run three years or more, and while firms plan to raise annual turbine output toward roughly 30 GW by 2030, that planned ramp still leaves a near-term shortfall through the late 2020s.
- The shortages raise concrete risks for operators: project delays, higher prices and paid reservation fees, more competition for delivery slots worldwide, and pressure on grid planning because even behind‑the‑meter private power plants need the same turbines.