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Gartner Sees 35% of VMware Workloads Leaving by 2028 as Licensing Shift Reshapes Options

The firm links expected departures to hyperscalers steering hosted users to native cloud following Broadcom’s resale restrictions.

Overview

  • At Gartner’s Australia Symposium, research VP Julia Palmer said hyperscalers can no longer resell VMware subscriptions for hosted VMware services, requiring direct purchase from Broadcom with license portability.
  • Palmer said hyperscalers will leverage hosted VMware engagements to convert customers to what they call “proper cloud,” increasing migration pressure.
  • She advised phased strategies: modernize or re‑platform suitable applications in up to a year, while full departures typically take three or more years.
  • Recommended destinations were ranked Nutanix first, then public clouds, then Azure Local, then Windows Server/Hyper‑V, with Red Hat virtualization and OpenStack/KubeVirt least favored.
  • Palmer called VMware Cloud Foundation 9 a solid on‑premises option even as customers flag price and support concerns, and Broadcom reported infrastructure software revenue up 25% to $6.6 billion.