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Gartner Forecasts Auto AI Spending Collapse by 2029 as Only 5% of OEMs Sustain Growth

The firm blames unrealistic goals pursued without solid software foundations.

Overview

  • Gartner’s 2026 predictions report says the share of automakers with strong AI investment growth will plunge from over 95% today to 5% by 2029.
  • Only companies with robust software foundations, tech-savvy leadership and a long-term AI focus are expected to pull ahead, deepening gaps with tech-forward rivals.
  • Volkswagen’s software struggles at Cariad and its move to seek help from Rivian illustrate the organizational hurdles facing legacy brands.
  • Gartner predicts at least one fully automated vehicle assembly line by 2030, with nearly half of the world’s top 25 automakers already piloting advanced robotics.
  • The report flags a shortage of AI talent pushing up pay for experts, and separately forecasts 116 million EVs on the road in 2026 with China accounting for 61%.