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Gallup: Independents Hit Record 45% in 2025 as Younger Voters Shun Party Labels

Gallup attributes a 47% to 42% Democratic lead among leaners to dissatisfaction with President Trump.

Voters cast their ballots at Kennebunk Town Hall on Nov. 4, 2024, in Kennebunk, M.E.
FILE - A man wears an "I voted" sticker on his shirt, printed with the American flag and the U.S. constitution, after voting at Wa-Ke Hatchee Recreation Center in Fort Myers, Fla, on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
Cameron County Department of Elections early voting clerk Rebecca Salazar adds the second of two locks to the ballot box Friday, October 28, 2022, before the day's opening of the early voting polling location for the Texas midterm elections in Harlingen, Texas.
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Overview

  • Party identification fell to parity last year, with 27% calling themselves Democrats and 27% Republicans.
  • Within the 45% who identify as independents, 20% lean Democratic, 15% lean Republican and 10% do not lean, reflecting a three-point swing away from GOP leaners since 2024.
  • Generational patterns drive the shift, with 56% of Gen Z and a majority of millennials identifying as independents, higher than comparable cohorts in earlier decades.
  • Gallup’s quarterly tracking shows the balance moving from a 47%–43% Republican edge in late 2024 to a 48%–40% Democratic advantage by the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • Independents increasingly describe themselves as moderates as both parties polarize ideologically, and analysts say the current tilt could complicate Republicans’ prospects in the 2026 midterms.