Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin Bottom Likely Not Yet In, Sees $40K–$46K Base Case

Overview

• Galaxy Research published a report on June 12, 2026 that concluded Bitcoin has probably not hit its cycle bottom and that the most likely trough window is late 2026.
• The firm scored 13 historical bottom signals and found only four have triggered so far, with key missing signs including price below the on-chain cost basis, aggregate unrealized losses for holders, and sustained loss-taking.
• Galaxy flagged that October 2025 was the calmest cycle top on record, with an MVRV of about 2.29 and a realized cost basis near 43.7% of the all-time high, which mechanically raises dollar-denominated floor estimates.
• Using that cost-basis arithmetic and cycle timing, Galaxy’s base-case bottom range is $40,000–$46,000 in late 2026, with a harsher scenario at $30,000–$37,000 and a shallower range at $51,000–$54,000, while spot traded around $63K on the report date.
• The study excludes political, regulatory, and geopolitical shocks and warns that ETF outflows, tighter macro conditions, forced selling, and miner stress could lower the realized cost basis and push actual lows below the model’s ranges.