Overview

• As of the 5 p.m. AST Friday advisory, Gabrielle held 50 mph winds and was moving at 12 mph well north and east of the Caribbean.
• National Hurricane Center guidance points to a transition to hurricane strength late Saturday or Sunday.
• Reliable model tracks place the center at least about 130 nautical miles east of Bermuda in 60 to 72 hours, with a typical 72-hour track error near 90 nautical miles.
• Bermuda has a roughly 20% to 25% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds, according to NHC probabilities.
• No U.S. impacts are expected at this time, though swells and rough seas could affect shipping, fisheries, and cruise operations, and some forecasts suggest Category 2 intensity early next week east of Bermuda.