Overview
- Western-owned fleets based in Greece, Cyprus and Malta still carry over a third of Russia’s crude, mostly to India and China, and that trade would be cut off under the proposal.
- The remaining exports move on a shadow fleet outside Western insurance and scrutiny, which sources say Moscow would need to expand if access to Western services ends.
- British and U.S. officials are advancing the idea in technical G7 talks, and the final U.S. position depends on President Donald Trump’s chosen pressure strategy tied to Ukraine‑Russia peace negotiations.
- Recent analyses show growing reliance on opaque shipping, with 44% of Russian oil exported on sanctioned shadow‑fleet tankers in October and 1,423 vessels moving restricted oil for Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
- The step would bring the G7 and EU closest yet to a near‑total prohibition on dealings with Russian crude beyond import bans, while the U.S. separately licensed transactions with Lukoil stations outside Russia through April 29, 2026.