Overview
- The proposed shift would target Western-owned tankers, insurers and other shippers that still carry over a third of Russia’s oil exports, largely to India and China.
- EU diplomats are discussing adding the measure to the next Russia sanctions package in early 2026, which would need unanimous backing from all 27 members and a parallel G7 agreement.
- British and U.S. officials are promoting the plan in technical G7 talks, with the American position contingent on President Donald Trump’s chosen pressure tactics linked to peace negotiations.
- Cutting access to Western maritime services would push Moscow toward expanded use of its shadow fleet or reduced exports; CREA estimates October flows at 44% on sanctioned shadow tankers, 18% on other shadow vessels and 38% on Western-linked ships.
- If adopted, the ban would be the toughest Western restriction on Russian oil since 2022, as the U.S. concurrently allows transactions with Lukoil gas stations outside Russia under a licence valid through April 29, 2026.