Overview
- Jason Furman's comparison plots real GDP versus each country's pre‑pandemic trend from 2019 through Q3 2025, emphasizing cumulative scarring rather than year‑to‑year growth.
- India moved above its pre‑Covid path by 2022 and is shown nearing about +5% relative to trend by mid‑2025, the only major economy clearly exceeding its prior trajectory.
- The chart places the United States near +2% relative to trend by 2025, with the Euro Area around −3%, China near −5% and Russia close to −8%.
- Reports credit India's resilience to digital public infrastructure, production‑linked incentives, strong domestic consumption and investment, and demographic tailwinds.
- Furman highlights narrow drivers elsewhere, noting that roughly 92% of US growth in the first half of 2025 came from AI‑related data‑center investment.