Overview

• Global fuel oil consumption averages about 6.5 million barrels per day in 2025, up roughly 4.8% from 2019, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Longer voyages that reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea risks have raised bunker use, with FGE estimating a roughly 100,000 bpd boost as the IEA assesses a smaller effect.
• An expanded shadow fleet moving sanctioned or discounted cargoes now accounts for roughly 17% to about one‑fifth of tanker capacity, with vessels averaging around 20 years old and burning more fuel per mile.
• Middle Eastern power generation has added to demand, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s fuel oil imports up about 33% in 2024 and roughly 31% so far in 2025, including purchases of discounted Russian barrels to free domestic crude for export.
• More than 6,000 ships are equipped with scrubbers, with DNV expecting about 6,523 by year‑end, and Energy Aspects sees the market loosening in November–December as refineries in Saudi Arabia and Brazil return from maintenance.