Overview
- The JNIM fuel blockade that began in September has reached the capital, driving acute shortages, doubling pump prices, forcing school suspensions for at least two weeks, and prompting flight cancellations and business closures.
- Dozens of fuel tankers have been burned and drivers abducted during the campaign, which has restricted movement on key roads and strained basic services.
- Spain, the United States, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom have urged their citizens to leave Mali, with Spain recommending departure but not planning an evacuation.
- Analysts report JNIM has expanded south to Mali’s economic heartland with roughly 6,000 fighters and increasingly deploys explosive drone attacks, including reported use of modified commercial systems across Mali, Burkina Faso and Togo.
- The junta that expelled French forces and aligned with Russia remains unable to stem the offensive, as Mali’s withdrawal from ECOWAS and the ineffective Sahel alliance deepen isolation while European services warn of displacement risks and a potential terrorist sanctuary.