Overview
- National and regional forecasts on Thursday say the front will interact with a prefrontal trough and Pacific moisture to produce rain across the Peninsula starting Friday, November 13.
- Officials note the front could become quasi‑stationary on Saturday and Sunday, which would concentrate the largest rainfall totals on Sunday, November 15, especially in eastern, southern and northwestern Yucatán.
- The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional warns of intense, localized downpours in Veracruz, Puebla and Oaxaca and very strong northerly gusts of 50–70 km/h on parts of the Gulf coast that could raise seas and drive coastal flooding.
- Protección Civil de Yucatán and regional centers forecast local gusts of 30–40 km/h and coastal waves of 1.5–2 m in Yucatán, and list municipalities such as Celestún, Umán, Mérida, Motul, Tizimín, Valladolid and Tekax as likely to see moderate to strong afternoon rains.
- Rainfall and wind could cause flooded streets, reduced visibility and travel disruption and raise river and stream levels, so authorities advise preparedness and following local bulletins; a 'vaguada prefrontal' means a prefrontal trough that fuels showers and an 'evento de norte' is a northerly wind event that produces strong onshore winds.