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French Political Turmoil Puts 2026 Budget at Risk After PM Lecornu Resigns

Investors alongside EU officials are scrutinizing France's fiscal path.

Overview

  • Sébastien Lecornu quit after 27 days and stays on as caretaker, with President Emmanuel Macron giving him 48 hours to present a stability plan.
  • Acting as caretaker, Lecornu said lawmakers expressed willingness to pass a budget before December 31, yet doubts persist over the 2026 plan and debt-cutting measures.
  • France’s deficit is reported near 5.8% of GDP and public debt above 113% of GDP, keeping Paris under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure with targets stretching to 2029.
  • Borrowing costs have risen as confidence wavers; Fitch downgraded France last month and analysts say Moody’s is expected to consider action later in October.
  • Heavy social-protection spending—23.3% of GDP per Eurostat—complicates consolidation, and proposals such as axing two public holidays have faced strong resistance.