French PM Michel Barnier Faces Potential Government Collapse Over Budget Vote

The Rassemblement National and left-wing opposition threaten censure as Barnier weighs invoking Article 49.3 to pass the Social Security budget.

• The French National Assembly is set to vote on the Social Security budget today, with Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government at risk of collapse if a motion of censure passes.
• The Rassemblement National (RN) and left-wing opposition have signaled their intent to back a censure motion unless significant last-minute concessions are made.
• Barnier may invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the budget to pass without a vote but exposing the government to immediate censure proceedings.
• The RN, leveraging its influence, has already secured concessions on electricity taxes and state medical aid for undocumented migrants, but demands further changes to pensions and medication reimbursements.
• If the government falls, it would mark the shortest tenure in the history of France's Fifth Republic, deepening the political crisis following the June dissolution of the Assembly by President Macron.

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