Overview

• Opposition parties from the hard left to the far right have pledged to vote Bayrou out, with the National Assembly debate starting at 3 p.m. in Paris and a result expected early evening.
• Bayrou tied his survival to a 2026 austerity plan seeking roughly €44 billion in savings, including scrapping two public holidays, which has drawn fierce resistance.
• France’s deficit was about 5.8% of GDP last year and public debt stands near 114% of GDP, with bond spreads widening and 10‑ and 30‑year yields elevated.
• If defeated, Bayrou is expected to resign and stay on as caretaker while President Emmanuel Macron weighs appointing a successor, with talk of outreach to the Socialists and little appetite for new elections.
• Protest risk is rising, with a ‘Bloquons tout’ action called for Sept. 10 and trade‑union strikes planned for Sept. 18, as the hung parliament from the 2024 snap election continues to block stable governance.