Overview

• A July 2025 Xerfi analysis projects that up to 26,200 fast-food operators could run losses by 2026 under a combined scenario of tax and regulatory changes.
• The assessment covers a proposed VAT increase, a soda tax set to double in 2026 after a 2025 hike, cuts to low-wage payroll tax breaks and expanded restaurant voucher use in supermarkets.
• Allowing meal vouchers for supermarket shopping is estimated to siphon off €100 million from fast-food venues in 2025 and €195 million in 2026.
• Between 2018 and 2023, rising operational expenses halved sector net profits and pushed failure rates to 2–2.5 percent, the highest in recent years.
• Trade bodies Snarr, Umih and GHR withdrew from the Assises de la restauration working groups at Bercy in protest of the meal voucher reforms.