Overview
- The French Foundation for Strategic Studies expert judges a U.S. invasion improbable because of high operational risks and limited interests, invoking the 1980 Desert One failure as a cautionary precedent.
- He argues President Trump's threats are counterproductive by strengthening Iran's rulers' anti‑Western narrative.
- He says Washington could assist protesters through communications support such as satellite links like Starlink.
- He describes multiple potential trajectories for Iran's internal politics, with the regime's future uncertain.
- The protests began on December 28 at Tehran's Grand Bazaar after the rial hit a record low, and earlier reporting said Trump weighed new strikes in response to the crackdown.