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French Budget Race Tightens After Senate Finance Chief Warns Year-End Passage Is 'Compromised'

Article 47’s 70‑day clock makes an October 13–14 filing the last realistic window for adopting the 2026 finance bill by December 31.

Overview

  • Sébastien Lecornu has formed a new government and is working to table the 2026 budget by Tuesday as La France Insoumise and the Rassemblement national prepare censure motions.
  • Lecornu has eased the fiscal path from François Bayrou’s 4.6% deficit and €44 billion in savings toward a target under 5% with 6–9 billion euros less in cuts, a shift economists say could challenge EU commitments and raise borrowing costs.
  • Senate finance commission president Claude Raynal warns that on-time adoption now looks unlikely and details fallback options, including passing only the revenue section, a special tax‑collection law with monthly spending decrees, applying the bill by ordinance, or operating on services votés.
  • Without a voted budget, the state cannot legally levy taxes or authorize new spending unless Parliament adopts exceptional measures.
  • Analysts and business leaders caution that entering 2026 without a budget could freeze planned measures, muddle tax rules, deter hiring, and inflict losses estimated up to €11 billion, with past dissolutions cited as having cost about €15 billion.