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French Assembly Heads Into Knife-Edge Vote on 2026 Social-Security Budget

A knife‑edge tally will measure whether last‑minute concessions, including higher health spending, can overcome fractured alliances.

Overview

  • Socialists plan to back the bill after securing concessions such as suspending the pension reform, giving the government a rare boost from an opposition group.
  • Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise will vote against, while Les Républicains and Horizons are split and largely leaning to abstention; Greens and Liot could prove decisive.
  • The government has tabled amendments lifting the health‑spending target (ONDAM) to 3% and adding €100 million for overseas territories to attract key votes.
  • Ministers say they will not use a special law, ordonnances or article 49.3, and warn that failure could widen the 2026 Sécurité sociale deficit to about €29–30 billion even though benefits would still be paid.
  • Deputies are set to vote on the spending section and then the full PLFSS in second reading today, with several outlets reporting the outcome could hinge on only a handful of votes.