Overview

• Delivering its note to Prime Minister François Bayrou on 2 September, the Conseil d’analyse économique concluded that raising capital-income taxes prompts only a small increase in expatriations among the top 1% of capital-income households.
• Long‑term estimates put additional expatriation at 0.02% to 0.23% of affected high‑wealth households—roughly 90 to 900 families—for a one‑point increase in the tax rate on capital income.
• Historical analysis attributes a slight rise in net departures to the 2013 tax hike (+0.04 to +0.09 percentage point) and a slight decline to the 2017/2018 tax lightening (−0.01 to −0.07 point).
• While a wealthy shareholder’s departure cuts a single firm’s turnover, payroll and value added by about 15%, 30.6% and 24.3% respectively, the CAE estimates an extra €4 billion tax on the top 1% would trim national turnover by roughly 0.03%, payroll by 0.04% and value added by 0.05%.
• The CAE says tax optimization and evasion erode revenues about 2.5 times more than fiscal exile and urges policymakers to target those behaviors; supporters cite the study to bolster a 2% ‘taxe Zucman’ projected to raise €15–30 billion, though the government opposes the measure and its path remains uncertain.