Free Agent Cody Bellinger's Market Value Questioned Despite Rebound Season

Despite hitting improvements, Bellinger's weak contact quality raises questions over inflated perceived market value, as estimates range from $100 million to $250 million over several years.

• Cody Bellinger, the 2019 National League MVP, had a comeback season in 2023, bouncing back from poor performance in 2021 and 2022, where he batted .196-.253-.355.
• Despite statistical improvement, Bellinger's weak hitting quality raises questions about his perceived value. In 2023, his average liner exit speed was significantly lower than league average, suggesting he was fortunate on balls in play.
• Estimates of Bellinger's new contract value vary widely, ranging from $100 million to $250 million over several years. Yet, when adjusted for his hitting quality, he appears worth closer to his contract in 2023, not the amazing bargain he seemed.
• On the upside, Bellinger greatly improved his contact rate in 2023. He also showed development against same-handed pitching, hitting left-handed pitchers significantly better than right-handers.
• Bellinger signed a single-year contract with Chicago Cubs in 2023 but his agent, Scott Boras, is known for taking clients to the open market to determine their value. Hence, the Cubs may face tough competition to retain him.

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