France’s Wheat Output Falls 4% After Early Heatwave-Driven Harvest

Overview

• Provisional estimates published in mid-July by the Ministry of Agriculture’s Agreste put 2026 wheat production at about 32 million tonnes, a 4% decline from 2025 driven by lower average yields.
• Average provisional wheat yield fell to 69.3 quintals per hectare from 74.2 q/ha in 2025, a drop that outweighed a roughly 3% increase in planted wheat area.
• Barley output is estimated down about 6% to 11 million tonnes, with spring barley particularly hard hit and yields falling by roughly 36% because of late-cycle heat stress.
• Losses were highly uneven across regions, with some shallow-soil areas reporting declines up to about 20% while overall grain quality remained broadly good.
• Harvests finished unusually early this year, forcing farmers to change working hours, manage higher fire risk, and prompt modest upward pressure on domestic and export prices.