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France’s Social Security Budget Faces Cliff‑Edge Vote After Last‑Minute Health Spending Boost

Ministers raised the ONDAM target to 3% to sway écologistes as Horizons moves toward abstention, leaving the outcome uncertain on Tuesday.

Overview

  • The health minister filed an amendment lifting the ONDAM from 2% to 3%, a key signal to écologistes, whose leader Cyrielle Chatelain said it will weigh heavily in their decision.
  • Édouard Philippe said he will propose that Horizons deputies abstain rather than back the PLFSS, a stance that has split his group and further narrows the Assembly math.
  • The Socialist Party plans to vote for the compromise after securing measures including a pause in the pension age climb for certain cohorts, a CSG rise on capital income, and the retention of the €1 billion mutual insurers tax.
  • The receipts section passed on 5 December by 166–140 with 32 abstentions during a sparsely attended sitting, and the decisive vote on the full text on 9 December is expected to be very close with LR, Liot and écologistes pivotal.
  • The government warns rejection could swell the 2026 Sécurité sociale deficit to around €30 billion and says it is not planning to resort to a 49.3, ordonnances or a special law.