Overview
- HCFiPS’s 2026 assessment puts the 2025 shortfall at €14 billion, with 52% tied to undeclared work, 12% to health professionals, and 36% to insured individuals.
- The estimate is €1 billion higher than in 2024 due to inflation and changes in calculation methods and scope, according to HCFiPS president Dominique Libault.
- A separate €1.6 billion shortfall is calculated for micro‑entrepreneurs and platform workers excluded from the main total because errors cannot be readily distinguished from fraud.
- Detection improved in 2024 with €2 billion in fraud identified and €0.5 billion in losses avoided, yet only €680 million was recovered, with recoupment especially weak for undeclared work as firms can disappear or arrange insolvency.
- High risk is concentrated among micro‑entrepreneurs and platform workers, where 34–39% show declaration anomalies and 71% under‑declare turnover, and withholding at source will start on eight platforms in 2026 before a 2027 expansion.