INSEE Projects Population Peak in 2037 Followed by Long Decline

Overview

• The INSEE population projections, released Monday, project a central scenario peak of 69.8 million in 2037 and a fall to 65.9 million by 2070 under assumptions of fertility falling to 1.45 and net migration near 150,000 a year.
• The report shows sharp ageing with people 65 and over rising to about 32% of the population by 2070 and large increases in the 80+ and centenarian cohorts, raising demand for health and long‑term care services.
• INSEE notes the natural balance (births minus deaths) turned negative in 2025 so future growth in the central case relies almost entirely on net migration and small changes in fertility or migration would markedly alter the 2070 outcome.
• The Conseil d'orientation des retraites revised its long‑term pension shortfall to about 2.4% of GDP in 2070 and its pedagogical simulations show a progressive rise in average retirement age to roughly 64.4 in 2030, 65.8 in 2045 and 67.6 in 2070 would be the most effective single lever to restore balance.
• These technical updates sharpen policy choices ahead of the 2027 election by linking demographic trends to pensions funding, with likely debate over raising retirement ages, changing contribution or benefit rules, and migration or family policies while outcomes remain sensitive to uncertain demographic paths.