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France's Population to Peak at 70 Million by 2040 Before Gradual Decline

New demographic projections reveal migration as the key driver of growth amid declining birth rates and an aging population.

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Overview

  • France's population is projected to peak at 70 million in 2040 before declining to 68 million by 2070, according to new INED data.
  • The natural population growth has plummeted, with births exceeding deaths by only 17,000 in 2024, compared to 140,000 in 2019.
  • Deaths are expected to surpass births starting in 2027 due to low fertility rates and an aging population.
  • Migration, with a stable net rate of 152,000 people per year, is identified as the primary factor offsetting natural population decline.
  • The aging population will significantly strain social services, with the elderly population aged 75-84 projected to grow by 50% between 2020 and 2030.