France's Population to Peak at 70 Million by 2040 Before Gradual Decline

New demographic projections reveal migration as the key driver of growth amid declining birth rates and an aging population.

France's population is projected to peak at 70 million in 2040 before declining to 68 million by 2070, according to new INED data.
The natural population growth has plummeted, with births exceeding deaths by only 17,000 in 2024, compared to 140,000 in 2019.
Deaths are expected to surpass births starting in 2027 due to low fertility rates and an aging population.
Migration, with a stable net rate of 152,000 people per year, is identified as the primary factor offsetting natural population decline.
The aging population will significantly strain social services, with the elderly population aged 75-84 projected to grow by 50% between 2020 and 2030.