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France’s Flu Wave Intensifies as Models Point to Imminent Peak

H3N2, including a subclade with partial immune escape, is driving cases, prompting hospital preparations for the holiday period.

Overview

  • Public health data show all metropolitan regions at epidemic level except La Réunion, with activity still assessed as moderate but rising.
  • Institut Pasteur’s forecasts assign a 72.5% probability to a national peak in week 52 and 22.5% in the first days of January.
  • Authorities expect a marked increase in care use during the festive break, and Bouches-du-Rhône has requisitioned 17 general practitioners to maintain access.
  • The surge spans all ages but is most pronounced in children under 15, including in emergency and hospital indicators.
  • Vaccination coverage remains uneven, at about 44.2% in people 65+ and 21.3% in at‑risk adults under 65, with guidance to mask when symptomatic, clean hands regularly, and ventilate rooms.