Overview

• The Oct. 13 cutoff to submit the 2026 budget for the constitutionally required 70 days of debate now appears out of reach, making passage by Dec. 31 unlikely.
• The Haut Conseil des finances publiques is preparing an opinion on a draft sent Oct. 1, but public-law experts question whether a resigning government can present and defend it.
• Parliament is expected to weigh a special law that would carry the 2025 budget into 2026 to keep collecting existing taxes and ensure salaries, pensions, and services are paid.
• A rollover would leave the income‑tax scale unindexed to inflation, pushing more households into higher bills, while pensions would still be automatically revalued and about €6.7–7 billion in defense investment could be blocked.
• Economists estimate the stopgap could save €15–20 billion by freezing central spending yet heighten uncertainty and potentially raise borrowing costs, with alternatives like a separate revenue vote or Article 47 ordinances under discussion.